Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Some Charts, Some Comments

(Click any chart to enlarge)

Piles of garbage

Dream receipt projections, real outlay nightmare

Postwar bank asset composition, Treasury holdings at all-time historical lows


  1. Taylor,

    How is the Agency Debt/MBS continuing to increase? The 1.25T in mortgages was stopped in March, correct? What is the vehicle they are using to increase this over the past couple months? Where is the other trillion coming from?

  2. Matt M,

    Great question. You're correct that the MBS purchase program ended in March. However, I believe that the Fed can and will continue to accept MBS at the Fed repo window, which could account for increases in MBS exposure on the Fed balance sheet past March 2010.

    Other interesting trends to notice-- ongoing "liquidity to key markets" support of roughly $150-200B. Also, the LT bond market is essentially fully supported by Fed purchases. Now, for the meantime, that is supporting prices, but as the Fed becomes a more voluminous buyer and sits on these purchases, the liquidity of the market contracts... could long bond volatility be in the mix in the future?